China's Megatrends: The 8 Pillars of a New Society | 
| Authors: John Naisbitt, Doris Naisbitt
Publisher: HarperBusiness
Category: Book
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Rating:  8 reviews
Sales Rank: 11806
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 272
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Dimensions (in): 9.1 x 6.1 x 1.1
ISBN: 0061859443
Dewey Decimal Number: 330.951
EAN: 9780061859441
ASIN: 0061859443
Publication Date: January 1, 2010
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Product Description
A groundbreaking look at a new social-political model on the rise John and Doris Naisbitt, longtime China observers, provide an in-depth study of the fundamental changes in China's social, political, and economic life, and their impact on the West. With extraordinary access, and using the same techniques behind John Naisbitt's international bestseller Megatrends, the Naisbitts have traveled the country, interviewing journalists, entrepreneurs, academics, politicians, artists, dissidents, and expatriates. With the help of twenty-eight staff members of the Naisbitt China Institute in Tianjin, they have monitored local newspapers in all of China's provinces to identify the evolving perspectives and deep forces underlying China's transformation. Their research reveals that China is not only undergoing fundamental changes but also creating an entirely new social and economic model—what the Naisbitts call a "vertical democracy"—that is changing the rules of global trade and challenging Western democracy as the only acceptable form of governing. The Naisbitts have identified 8 pillars as the foundation and drivers of China's new society: - Emancipation of the Mind
- Balancing Top-Down and Bottom-Up
- Framing the Forest and Letting the Trees Grow
- Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones
- Artistic and Intellectual Ferment
- Joining the World
- Freedom and Fairness
- From Olympic Medals to Nobel Prizes
Examining each of these 8 pillars in great detail, China's Megatrends describes the new China for the knowledgeable and the newly curious, offering fresh and provocative insights and lessons to be learned.
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Showing reviews 1-5 of 8
 Can America win by confronting China? March 7, 2010
Francis Fung (San Francisco)
Can America win by confronting China?
By Francis C W Fung ([...])
Updated: 2010-02-25 17:20
Will America win in an all out confrontation with China? The reality is both sides will lose. How much each side will lose? Which nation will recover more readily from the loss suffered from such an unwise and unthinkable confrontation? Will our over reach into another unnecessary cold war be productive? How essential is it for both nations to reach harmony consensus for win- win development instead of confrontation? America should have a public debate on this very urgent and important subject so we are better prepared for the consequences of our confrontational actions should we decide to embark on it.
Leaders of both nations are fully aware of the severe consequences of an avoidable all out confrontation. But a public debate in America is needed so President Obama will not be subjected to undue pressure from the public to provoke China to the point of no return. American media still mire its mind in the past Cold War mentality as to have not done the necessary task to educate American public about China development. We are uninformed and under disillusion about how China could progress so fast economically during the past three decades.
Despite the fact that the 2008 global financial crises was caused by America, there has rarely been any complaint from China. Chinese culture is not known to be critical of others. Fortunately Chinese leaders also read Sun Zi and follow Deng Xiaoping's foreign policy teaching for China -"Observe developments soberly, maintain our position, meet challenges calmly, hide our capacities and bide our time, remain free of ambition, never claim leadership" and avoid serious confrontations. American leaders are under pressure from the public to confront China for the last half century ever since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Our citizens are constantly reminded by the media that we have the best political system and China must follow the American model to develop (See Martin Jacques, "When China Rules the World", 2010).
American media has vowed with confidence that China now is more dependent on American market. This media driven misinformation served to build up American confidence to please the public. This misconception of the public can be dangerous as to force our leaders hands on too many unnecessary confrontations with China, as witnessed by our superior than thou attitude on Internet Freedom, sales of arms to Taiwan and Obama's meeting with Dalai Lama, despite repeated warning from China. On further analysis it is easy to show that America is actually more dependent on China as our banker to support out twin deficits.
Americans think we won the Cold War because of our superior ideology. Over the years, we have convinced ourselves that we are invincible. We also are very proud that our military power is supreme and that we are a creative nation and lead the world in technology. The truth is that our business enterprise is competitive because we have an early action in industrial revolution and our most endowed land attracts vast number of talents who seek opportunities. Ideology is very fickle. A nation can change her ideology on a dime as we witness China's transformation. During the last three decades of reform and opening up she has proved that her hybrid system of combined state economy with market economy can work quite well. Many foreign talents that used to come from Europe, Japan, China and India are now returning home because economic opportunities in their homelands are growing with increased prosperity. This phenomenon is well known as we saw Japanese and Taiwanese scientists and entrepreneurs returning home during the latter part of last Century and recently some Chinese and Indian talents are doing the same.
If current American provocation is unchecked there may come a point that China will be forced to retaliate in action by discontinuing to subsidize our twin deficits. This reaction will most likely lead to an all out confrontation. The first to suffer will be American consumers who will need to pay higher prices for essential goods to maintain our living standard. Next will be American and Chinese businesses, because 70 % of imports from China are under joint venture management with foreign companies making more profit than that of Chinese business. It may not be fun to watch the domino effects of worldwide trade protectionism and stock markets crash, but it could happen like the 1929 world depression. When this does occur there is no telling who will be the bigger loser.
Luckily the world will recover from the next depression if it should occur despite our efforts to prevent it. The question is who will be more likely to recover from it fastest? America has never had a major calamity that took place in our home land other than the Civil War. China, however on the other hand, during the last Century, experienced the devastation of numerous imperial wars of aggression, the Japanese occupation, two major civil wars, the Cultural Revolution and the recent devastating Sichuan earthquake. She has showed remarkable resilience in recovering from all those calamities. In addition, as an ancient culture, she has shown continuous unity for a long uninterrupted history of five thousand years.
As a dynamic young nation, America does not have a deep rooted ancient civilization as binding force. China is a cultural state and not a political state. China is more centralized and cohesive as is demonstrated by her developing pattern over the last three decades and her fast recovery from the last global economic crisis. (See Martin Jacques, "When China Rules the World", 2010). As the world's manufacturing center, China certainly will be the first to have the get up and go to export consumer goods to the rest of the developing world. Remember in any depression, when the stock market has crashed, cash is king. Whereas America is currently heavily in debt, China has two trillion dollars of foreign currency reserve. Adding the 700 billion from Hong Kong, this will make 2.7 trillion. She and other cash rich nations in Asia will certainly recover much faster during this potential depression than America, even if they are not targeted to rise already by most accounts.
History has ample documentations of the 1929 global depression. It is sufficient to conclude that at this time of crisis, caution is the best part of velour for both America and China not to tempt fate. The most advisable course of action is for America and China both to continue cooperation and reach Harmony Consensus. In a joint effort between the most powerful developed nation and the fastest growing developing country, America and China will both fulfill the manifested destination of greatness, bringing lasting peace and harmony to the world. Harmony is the most common value of human civilization and Harmony Renaissance is the next creative wave of energy mankind is waiting for to lead us to the next level of accomplishment beyond European Renaissance.
AN AWESOME AND COMPELLING WORK February 22, 2010
Larry Michelson
1 out of 5 found this review helpful
Regardless of political party affiliation, every U.S. politician, their staff and all America's media and academic pundits need to read and objectively think about the implications of this book on the future of the United States.
The Naisbitt's analysis of China is right-on with what has happened in this country these last 30 years, and where she sits today. As for the 21st Century, the authors demonstrate China's strategic direction and rapid development and implementation of the necessary tactics to support their planning and vision for the future. Contrast China's approach to America's dysfunctional political parties, who at best, when they do anything for the country chase one political tactic after another with usually one strategy in mind...stay in or regain power.
Anyone who thoughfully reads this book should realize that if the United States doesn't get its domestic and international act together soon, historians one day will record the 21st Century as the Chinese Century. At the same time, historians will write that the 21st Century for the United States was one of economic, political and social decline.
 A good survey of what is happening in China today but has not quite got to the heart of the matter. January 19, 2010
Cheryl (Birmingham, UK)
11 out of 17 found this review helpful
So much change has taken place in China in the past three decades--and is taking place at such a dazzling pace on a daily basis--that it is a daunting task for the knowledgeable, not to mention the newly curious, to grasp the picture that is China today. Using the same techniques behind his Megatrends published in 1982, Naisbitt has written a welcome book that describes today's China in broad strokes, or the "eight pillars", in his terms.
In short, a good effort from a Westerner to try to present China using a balanced approach; an informed read definitely for the newly curious.
But the book is clearly strained in certain places--hence only a four-star rating--as a result of the author's failure to truly grasp the essence of thousands-year-old Chinese culture, which surely is a fundamental force forever existent to shape China's future.
Consider this fatal misconception on pages 41-42 where the author discusses his interesting observation about China's "vertical democracy":
"Social order and harmony were central to the teachings of Confucius, who believed that only order could provide true freedom. This concept also prevails in team sports, where rules set the conditions for freedom in playing. In the same way, an orderly society establishes the context within which people can act freely. In the Chinese way of thinking, order does not oppress people but defines room to maneuver."
Ask anybody who has studied Confucius and Chinese history, he or she will tell us that at the heart of the teachings of Confucius are family ethics extended to the whole of a society--making China a "connections-based society", according to Wei Wang, author of The China Executive. In other words, it is "interpersonal relations, involving both obedience and accountability" that constitute the unique fabric of Chinese society.
And if we reflect a little upon our own society, we know that contrary to what Naisbitt says above, the concept of "team", where rules set the conditions for freedom in playing, actually lies at the very heart of a Western society, making it "rules-based".
Therefore, if the watchword for Chinese society is harmony, then the watchword for a Western society is freedom. And neither is perfect.
For me, this most fundamental difference between a Western society and Chinese society, which is thoroughly and entertainingly discussed in The China Executive (in particular, on pages 20-34; and while The China Executive is a business book, it contains many important insights into the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese culture and worldview--especially in chapters 1 and 9), has profound implications for where China is heading.
For instance, instead of saying that China is developing a vertical democracy as Naisbitt does, we could argue that China's path to democracy has to begin from the middle, i.e. at the level of an enterprise. Chinese history tells us that dramatic change at either the top or the bottom would lead to chaos or even civil wars simply because the vast majority of the Chinese people have not had sufficient training in system-wide logical thinking.
An enterprise is an appropriate "team" context, in which the Chinese can try to break away from their age-old family-oriented thinking and learn to debate in a logical way, to put forward appropriate rules, and to experience the consequences of following or not following the rules.
Put it simply, if the Chinese struggle to behave according to rules in an enterprise--we have to remember that over half of the 1.3 billion people have never had the chance to be a member of any rules-based organisation--it is hopeless to expect them to be able to understand and observe the rules of a nationwide democracy.
Read Tim Clissold's book Mr China, we will understand why even at the enterprise level, the idea of a "team" still poses such a challenge to the Chinese.
"China cannot be thoroughly understood from either a Western or a Chinese perspective. To grasp its nature requires an orbital, historical view of both the West and China," Wang says. It is also safe to say that China has risen in the past three decades as a result of its learning from the West, and there is no doubt that it will continue to learn from the West.
But by largely justifying the status quo of China, Naisbitt seems to suggest that there is no need for China to learn further from the West. (Arguably, there is even more for the West to learn from China or rather Chinese civilisation, but that is a different matter - a good place to start with is Yu Dan's Confucius from the Heart.)
Nowhere is this more clearly shown than at the beginning and the end of the book, where the author posed the question: "How did China succeed?" (Note the past tense of the sentence.)
Surely this is against Confucian spirit, which would tell us that China's road to success (if we define success as both harmony and freedom) is still "long and arduous" ("renzhong er daoyuan", The Analects, book VIII, chapter 7) - some of the challenges China will have to face are discussed by James Kynge in China Shakes the World.
 Biased and Incomplete, but Still Worthwhile January 27, 2010
Loyd E. Eskildson (Phoenix, AZ.)
16 out of 19 found this review helpful
John Naisbitt is a popular futurist who is now focusing on China, and joined by his new wife Doris in writing "China's Megatrends." After traveling numerous times throughout China, interviewing a range of professionals, and monitoring local newspapers in all of China's provinces, they offer a book built around eight 'pillars of the new system.' Unfortunately, these pillars do not translate well into concrete concepts, and are instead mostly illustrated with anecdotes and described by effusive paeans. Nonetheless, "China's Megatrends" also provides valuable perspectives and background with which to view our Asian competitor.
The Naisbitts believe China has a different ('vertical') type of democracy than western nations, and explain how the nation has a single party with local elections taking place in 680,000 some locales, with those elected approving budgets at that level and electing representatives to higher levels. The book, however, omits the key role and requirement of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) membership. The Naisbitts concede that censorship does occur, but largely in the context of the Confucian values of politeness, loyalty to the state, and saving face - euphemisms in Western eyes, at best. The good news is that dissent is much more tolerated than previously, and Confucian values also include an obligation of the leader towards his/her followers.
On the other hand, "China's Megatrends" also raises important points that deter an overly quick rush to judgment of China using our values. The Naisbitts state that they "don't feel entitled to lecture a leadership that has led millions out of poverty, has the support of the vast majority of the people, and is well aware of what needs to be done." They then ask, "Why has 'autocratic' China succeeded in making economic progress, while many democratic states have failed?" The Naisbitts believe that the CCP's constancy has allowed China's long-term direction to be set and carried out without the distractions and disruptions of western elections, and that when a nation is on the brink of collapse it cannot afford the time to discuss and vote on how to get out of the mess. Specifically, Deng Xiaoping and his successors took one billion people divided in a class struggle after Mao's death and united them behind the goal of transforming the country. When the transformation began in 1978, most any work carried on outside the state structure was illegal, and only 165,000 Chinese graduated from a university. Today, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) account for less than half of China's industrial GDP, and 4.5 million Chinese recently graduated from a university.
"China's Megatrends" also points out how its leaders often moved forward through experiments, one of the best known being designating five coastal areas as 'special economic zones' free of traditional regulations. Another was allowing small banks to sell up to 15% of themselves to western banks as a means of learning improved practices. Probably most important was the pact initiated by 18 destitute farmers in October, 1978 - agreeing to split the commune's cropland into 18 plots to be worked by the individual farmers and their families. (During the Cultural Revolutions, farmers, many owning less than an acre, had been persecuted, dispossessed, even killed.) The group of 18 were supported by the local CCP first secretary, and then Deng Xiaoping. At about the same time peasants were given drastically reduced quotas. What food they grew beyond the quota was sold on a free market at unregulated prices. This was an instant success, quickly causing one of the largest increases in standard of living for such a large number of people in such a very small space of time. This system maintained quotas, and thus, the element of socialist societies in which food and employment was ensured by the state.
The 'problem' with these new-found successes (emulated also in industrial production) was that a two-track pricing system ensued - one for state-produced goods, and a higher one for goods produced independently. This led to citizens upset over officials profiting from transferring SOE products to the private market, March, 1988 price decontrol (per recommendation of Milton Friedman, and endorsement by a citizen survey), 95% inflation the next month, government allocation of food and fuel in August, and economic growth hitting a nadir in 1989. Hundreds of thousands then gathered to mourn the death of a pro-democracy and anti-corruption former Secretary General Hu Yaobang in Tienanmen Square (more at about 400 other locations as well), and eventually began protesting for more (or less) economic and political change. After about six weeks of continued unrest, the Chinese army was called in, and arrived June 4, 1989 - despite being hampered by demonstrators and burning blockades. Ergo, tanks, troops, and tragedy in Tienanmen Square. The 'good news' is that civil war did not result (a fear acerbated by China's Cultural Revolution history), nor were the economic reforms undone.
Other reforms since then include Jian Zemin's 1997 support for SOEs having financial problems to pair up with healthy enterprises - rarely were both brought down, no longer requiring farmers to pay land tax (2005), and allowing farmers to lease their land as of 2008. Future plans include increasing China's R&D (more funds for laboratories, projects), continued recruitment of Chinese 'sea turtles' - highly educated Chinese science, management and finance professionals previously working in the U.S. that return to China for attractive research and professorial positions, having the government bear most medical expenses by 2011, increased use of non-polluting power generation, 50% college graduation rate, etc.
The importance of Confucianism in China's society is another important topic brought out by the Naisbitts. Since at least 200 B.C. it has provided the working rules and ethical precepts for Chinese to follow, stressing societal and family obligations, loyalty, and education. U.S. history, howevever, stresses personal initiative and independence - attributes that were key to our early development and economic success, but more problematic in a nation crowded with 300+ million and significant environment issues.
Interesting side-note from "China's Megatrends:" Shanghai's largest bookstore is 7 floors, each the size of a football field.
Bottom Line: "China's Megatrends" is incomplete and embarrassingly biased in some sections, and tells its story in a cumbersome, overly-anecdotal manner. On the other hand, the Naisbitts provide a significant service pointing out that we should not be so quick to criticize China's leadership,values, and culture. No other national leaders have done so well over such a short period of time. Still, we cannot forget the terrible prior record of Mao Zedong - his 'Great Leap Forward' (created widespread famine), 'Cultural Revolution,' and political purges are widely believed to have caused the deaths of between 50 to 70 million people. Nonetheless, it is time to rethink our own values and problems in the light of China's recent successes vs. our own flat-lining economy and inability to resolve major problems such poor international pupil achievement rankings, high health care costs, global warming, deteriorating infrastructure, and ever-deepening deficits.
Made in China? March 2, 2010
Raised by Wolves (Plano, TX United States)
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
I have to wonder if this book was outsourced to the lowest bidder. As an avid reader, I cannot remember a book so full of typos. Really, it seemed like every 4th or 5th page. Although the acknowledgements are replete with thanks to this or that friend who reviewed drafts, advised on syntax or translations, etc., it is stunningly apparent that no one proof read the manuscript. No one with native literacy in English, anyway.
OK, that is petty, but damned annoying. You wonder if similar carelessness went into compiling the many statistics used to justify points.
All that aside, it is a thought-provoking discussion of change and values contrasting our own Western preconceptions currently trending to anarchist populist resentment of any form of government, and the high-stakes realities facing Chinese leadership and the patience and persistence they bring to the challenges. While we continue a death spiral of gridlocked, dysfunctional government, the Chinese are investing in themselves ... not only in China, but in the rest of the world. We had better get used to them running things.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 8
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