The Beijing Consensus: How China's Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century |  | Author: Stefan Halper
Publisher: Basic Books
Category: Book
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Rating:  9 reviews
Sales Rank: 19,638
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 312
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Dimensions (in): 9.2 x 6.3 x 1.1
ISBN: 0465013619
Dewey Decimal Number: 327.51
EAN: 9780465013616
ASIN: 0465013619
Publication Date: April 6, 2010
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Product Description
Beijing presents a clear and gathering threat to Washington—but not for the reasons you think. China’s challenge to the West stems from its transformative brand of capitalism and an entirely different conception of the international community. Taking us on a whirlwind tour of China in the world—from dictators in Africa to oligarchs in Southeast Asia to South American strongmen—Halper demonstrates that China’s illiberal vision is rapidly replacing that of the so-called Washington Consensus. Instead of promoting democracy through economic aid, as does the West, China offers no-strings-attached gifts and loans, a policy designed to build a new Beijing Consensus. The autonomy China offers, together with the appeal of its illiberal capitalism, have become the dual engines for the diffusion of power away from the West. The Beijing Consensus is the one book to read to understand this new Great Game in all its complexity.
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Showing reviews 1-5 of 9
 Important and Informative - April 8, 2010
Loyd E. Eskildson (Phoenix, AZ.)
34 out of 41 found this review helpful
Stefan Halper's "The Beijing Consensus" summarizes how China's ('The People's Republic of China' - PRC) non-confrontational strategies are changing the world order. For decades the U.S. used its military and economic strength to leverage developing countries into economic and government reform. This worked fine, as long as we were the only game in town. The PRC, however, has now entered the arena and provides a welcome non-judgmental alternative to many struggling nations. This new approach to foreign aid, combined with admiration for China's economic success, is boosting its world influence, as well as access to energy and other natural resources. Meanwhile, China's autocratic leadership is now setting the foundation for future economic successes, and shows no sign of liberalizing; ironically, U.S. economic progress seems hindered by its vaunted democratic processes.
Some Americans have fixated on growing PRC expenditures, now second largest in the world, for modernizing its military. Halper believes this should not be a concern. China is avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S., even though it remains committed to re-unification with Taiwan and the U.S. to preservation of Taiwan's defense. The first reason to not worry is that China does not want the budgetary strain of a military arms race with the U.S., nor the foreign policy atmospherics that would result. Halper sees China's modernizing military as simply motivated via 'just-in-case' Americans get too aggressive, and centers on high-tech, close-in defensive weapons. Halper's second reason for discounting a military threat from the PRC is that Taiwan is no longer the flash-point it once was. The is due to China's confidence that re-unification is inevitable, and its willingness to wait. Meanwhile, trade between the two was $108 billion in 2007 (up 16% from 2006), over one million Taiwanese now live and work in the PRC, contacts have increased through regular mail and commercial flights between the two, and China's economic successes have made it more attractive to those living on Taiwan.
Halper, however, is very much concerned about China's growing soft power. Per Harvard's Joseph Nye, when competing for influence "It's not whose Army wins, it's whose story wins." China sees foreign aid as an important part of the contest of stories. Nations clamoring for aid during the latter half of the 20th-century had little choice other than the U.S. led World Bank and the IMF. However, both soon demonstrated a lack of ability to reliably help other nations, sometimes causing more harm than good. Reasons included their numerous ideological 'one-size-fits-all' economic requirements that assumed recipient nations had strong domestic industries, legal systems, and administrative cadres. Despite aid recipient nations often being in recession, IMF and World Bank mandates for cutting government spending worsened the economies of many aid recipients. Directed to eliminate trade barriers, recipients likely found their domestic industries overwhelmed (African food and clothing producers), while corporations in advanced nations enjoyed a windfall. IMF and World Bank-required elimination of barriers to foreign investment often brought inflation, and forced privatization frequently brought fraud as as former state sectors were taken over by political cronies (Russia). Then there was the obvious hypocrisy of our often propping up ruthless oil and anit-Communist dictators while espousing American-style democracy, ignoring Israel;s abuse of Palestinians, and subsidizing American agriculture at the same time the World Bank and IMF prevented developing countries from doing the same. Then came our own problems - the [...] crash, 9/11, our Katrina response, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, ballooning trade and federal deficits, realization of an inadequate and dated infrastructure, a failing education system, crippling health care and defense costs, inability to aggressively address global warming, deindustrialization, our 2007 Wall Street collapse, and quixotic quests to play the role of world's policeman (Iran, Korea). Each served to undermine America's former soft power aura of competence and success.
Halper attributes recent U.S. economic problems, as well as its ineffectual aid to others, to an inflexible economic ideology that developed in response to problems caused by powerful American labor unions of the 1970s. Faced with both rising unemployment and inflation, Milton Friedman and the 'Chicago school' sold Republicans on the assertion that government involvement didn't solve problems, rather it made them. Deregulation (transportation), reduced regulations, free trade, privatization of state-owned enterprises, and cutting taxes became de rigueur. At first, everything came up roses - American icons such as Coke, Nike, McDonald's, and then Microsoft, sprung up all over the globe, America's 20% inflation was stopped cold, and then the Russian empire collapsed in 1991. We even deluded ourselves into thinking Americans were "special people" with an assignment to evangelize others in democracy and freedom, per God. Reality, however, was that America had reached the peak of its 'soft power,' and was headed downhill.
China, meanwhile, talked little and accomplished much, thanks to its high savings rate, emphasis on and respect for education, flexible economic ideology, protected domestic markets, enormous supply of low-cost labor, and an autocratic government that permitted no 'great debates' - instead taking fast, consistent actions and learning from nearby Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan. On the political side, rather than accept conventional wisdom that economic success required a more democratic government, and sensitive to its revolt-prone past, the PRC government instead concluded that Russia had erred in permitting democratic reforms to outrun economic progress. In addition, China also determined that Russia had suffered from an overly aggressive foreign/satellite policy, a too-large military, a lack of market mechanisms, and a failure to ensure that key industries supported national interests. Incorporating all these lessons, the PRC elected to use strong, intelligent government power to accelerate economic growth; in turn the improved economy would serve as a means of maintaining the Communist Party's power. The new economy offered considerable economic freedom, while retaining government leadership of key industries such as telecommunications, banking, metals (steel, aluminum), and transportation. Pros included fast action, and consistent direction that wasn't subject to reversal every election cycle, continual media-fed industry-led fighting over economic direction, and the ability to immediately link business decision-making with political goals (eg. banning American firms selling arms to Taiwan from selling to the mainland; sometimes slowing the use of mechanization as a means of boosting employment). Cons - local officials' corruption, very limited democracy, and incredible pollution. (China's corruption problem, however, should be evaluated in the context of American business lobbying and 'buying elections.')
Thirty years later, China has accumulated some $2.4 trillion in currency reserves (could reach $13.4 trillion by 2020), increasingly used to fund aid projects on its own and provide a path around the West. Six billion is now committed to funding a media campaign to tell China's story. Chinese 'industrial policy' decisions have also brought the economic benefits of clustering (simplifies marketing and support efforts, intensifies knowledge distribution and competition), minimized contradictions (eg. not buying G.M.'s fuel-wasting Hummer brand in an increasingly resource and pollution-conscious world), and avoided undermining key values (eg. allowing banks to promote credit cards, instead of encouraging savings). Resource-rich nations (eg. OPEC) now emulate China - using their natural resources to avoid levying taxes and the subsequent demands for democracy, while using state capitalism to develop the economy, keep the populace happy, and leverage their own foreign policy etc. goals. (The world's thirteen largest oil companies are owned and run by governments; Saudi Arabia 'invented' political use of economic resources with its 1970s Oil Embargo; Gazprom periodically threatens to freeze large areas of Europe by turning off natural gas supplies.)
The weak U.S. economy is now less able/willing to provide large foreign aid projects, and the Bank of China is 6X the size of the World Bank. Turns out, we're not missed. Halper quotes an African leader comparing the World Bank's slow (five years) contracting and often patronizing support processes, vs. China's three months and few restrictions. In turn, China has lots of new friends supporting its aims in Taiwan, Tibet, and within China itself. Ironically, while Americans have been fighting and dying in Afghanistan for nearly nine years, China is investing $3 billion to gain access to its huge copper reserves - first building roads, a $500 million power plant, a national railway, a coal mine, and eventually creating as many as 10,000 jobs for Afghans. Paradoxically, its investment is protected by American soldiers, and President Karzai is threatening to join the Taliban. Nearby, in Iran, China has $120 billion worth of oil deals - undoubtedly motivation for opposing U.S. goals there, and is busily also helping Iraq develop its oil resources.
China's recognizes that operational effectiveness in the role of offshore producer is not a long-term strategy for either maximizing profits nor full employment within China. Neither is the long-term holding of huge amounts of potentially depreciating American financial assets good for China. In response, the PRC has undertaken its own 'Buy American' campaign - acquiring American and other consumer product companies (Lenovo, Volvo, portions of the Blackstone Group and Morgan Stanley) and starting its own (egl Geely automobiles), using political and economic leverage to acquire American (and others') technological capabilities in tomorrow's industries, acquiring access to raw materials around the world, recruiting skilled science and math expatriates to return, increasing its own R&D capabilities and expenditures, and boosting education expenditures - especially at the university level. Some of these moves also serve to position it for marketing to the less developed world - the projected location of most future economic growth. China is also focusing on expanding internal demand for goods and services, thereby becoming less dependent on exports, less vulnerable to protectionism by other nations, and requiring less resources and generating less pollution/GDP growth than increasing basic industries.
Halper ends with the obligatory section on recommendations. Unfortunately, they lack any likelihood of success (eg. establishing a 'China section' within the National Security Council).
Bottom-Line: China's 'miracle growth' economy has not required emulating American democracy - in fact, China's economy has benefited from government remaining autocratic, and has added autocratic capitalism to its list of exports. Further, it's a mystery why we (or Google) care about developing democracy in China - polls show a preference for social order and economic progress over Western liberal democracy, a finding consistent with Maslow's needs hierarchy. Halper believes "China is set to have a greater impact on the world in the next two decades than any other country" - not because of its increased military spending (much lower than the U.S.) but because it has become a beacon of management/government ideas about making capitalism more effective. Halper also concludes that given China's concern with 'face' (the reason for torpedoing President Obama's request for emissions verification), and U.S. politicians' inability to get beyond media-reinforced rabble-rousing about China, there is little possibility of the PRC and the U.S. becoming a team. Meanwhile, U.S. democracy has become paralyzed, unable to overcome outdated ideological baggage on economic policy (unrestrained free trade, minimal regulation) and foreign policy (dictating and preaching, portraying differences as 'good vs. evil,' preemptive military strikes, unwavering support for Israel) to reverse our weakening economy and international standing.
Comprehensive, Informative, Timely, & Well Written April 29, 2010
Nancy Dean (New York)
10 out of 12 found this review helpful
Stefan Halper, educated in Britain (PhD's at both Oxford and Cambridge) and a professor at Cambridge, draws on a classical education to make his case, but does so in a powerful, provocative, no holds bared manner. As the New York Times said, his book, "The Beijing Consensus" is a game changer--it challenges the parameters of the China debate. Long overdue, Halper has cast the cat amongst the pigeons in what will surely tease out both critics and advocates.
Halper's book offers a fresh, badly needed perspective on China, US-China relations, and how US policy (as reflected in the Washington Consensus) in the developing world has eroded the prospects for democratic government and the progressive civic culture needed to support it. The book captures the subtle, non-confrontational quality of China's global rise--"it arrives on little cat's feet". It draws the Chinese dynamic together by making the crucial link between the Communist Party's fear of chaos, China's need for 8% growth, and China's mercantile policies that exploit the Third World...and here Halper draws both on his experience in Africa and in China. I found the comments of President Wade of Senegal and President Museveni of Uganda both amusing and credible illustrations of the frustration of dealing with the West in general, and the World Bank and IMF, in particular.
Unlike other recent books examining China's rise, Halper, to his credit, does not seem overly excited about either China's growing military prowess or its rapidly expanding economy which he sees linked to the US in a "Marriage of liabilities" in which a difficult but symbiotic relationship will continue. He believes both the military and economic dimensions of the US-China relationship are critically important and require the president's priority attention, but should be approached as "problem management "questions, not crises.
Instead, Halper points to a "battle of ideas" about governance and makes the point that the global information space will provide the context for confrontation. Both China and the US have, Halper believes, concluded that conflict over territory is less likely than confrontation over different models of governance: China's "market-authoritarian model" versus the "Western "market-democratic" model. Thus, he quotes Harvard's Joe Nye, saying "It's not whose army wins, its whose story wins".
This sets up a contest revolving around values and presentation. Halper makes the point that Washington's China policy today does not address the critical contest unfolding in the global information space where China recently launched a $6.6 billion program in 56 languages to frame unfolding events to its liking--and thus the US is posed to lose where it really counts. He urges a fresh look at China policy to meet this challenge.
China's impact on world affairs in the century ahead raises critical policy and resource questions for the US and the West. Not only will quality of life in the West be affected, but we can expect China's policies to impact economic growth, employment, stability and the idea of liberal market democracy as a model for governance.
This book advances a number of particularly innovative arguments on China, continuing a broad theme--the political function of information-- found in two of Halper's previous books, "America Alone" and "The Silence of the Rational Center".
In effect China's approach marginalizes Western values, and this book is a key to understanding that process July 20, 2010
Midwest Book Review (Oregon, WI USA)
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
The Beijing Consensus: How China's Authoritarian Model Will Dominate The 21st Century is a pick for any library strong in US/China relations and social issue alike, and comes from a foreign policy expert who argues about the real China threat facing America. China's new role on the global stage brings with it new Third World interactions and relationships as it funds infrastructure projects in these countries in a fraction of the time taken by the more traditional IMF or World Bank - and without demands about civil rights and internal practices. In effect China's approach marginalizes Western values, and this book is a key to understanding that process.
USA Influence to decline July 19, 2010
wbsjets
I travel frequently throughout the Mid and Far East. For several years I've commented to friends that it's scary to see their wealth and rate of growth. And that I was concerned that I rarely saw evidence of US firms doing any of the massive infrastructure work.
After reading I have a much better understanding of why over the last few years the US influence seems to be dramatically declining. Every day when I read the Financial Times I see articles that report on the advances of the China Consensus exactly as noted in the book.
 A Few Interesting Insights June 6, 2010
Samuel J. Sharp
2 out of 2 found this review helpful
This book focuses on the developing world's frustrations with the United States and the relative attractiveness of the Chinese illiberal growth model. Halper explains how China has coupled its commercial rise with an aggressive diplomatic approach to poorer countries. Halper argues that in light of the recent financial crisis and prolonged wars in the Middle East, the United States now suffers a severe credibility problem and developing countries are growing tired of America's preaching in foreign affairs. China is an attractive alternative, especially for African nations, because China spends its vast currency reserves in foreign countries with little to no strings attached. Halper presents survey data showing that public attitudes in developing countries are much more favorable toward China than toward the US.
While Halper explains the present state of affairs well, his analysis does not project much into the future. He offers suggestions as to what SHOULD happen (such as abandoning the G8 and expanding the permanent seats on the UN Security Council) but no clear statements about where current trends are leading us. This is disappointing.
The other shortfall of the book is that Halper takes for granted that China's growth model is either sustainable or actually exportable to other countries. Granted, this is a book on international affairs and not economics, but China's ability to continue to grow wealthy while denying its citizens political freedoms akin to those enjoyed in the west is a huge question that cannot be ignored. As Halper points out, the Chinese growth model is attractive to autocratic, developing countries because "it shows you don't need democracy to grow." This fact is in dispute and should have been explored in more detail.
Readers who are more interested in what is going on inside China rather than the ramifications on the international stage should consider "Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics" or "Capitalism Without Democracy" for a much more detailed discussion of China's growth model and whether it really is the formidable opponent to western democratic capitalism that Halper assumes.
A final note, potential purchasers should not be misled by the subtitle to this book. At a Cato Institute book forum, Halper explained that his publisher chose the word "dominate" not Halper himself. This book is not a sensationalized account of how China will eventually take over the world, but rather a carefully thought out explanation of how China is managing its economic rise through diplomacy and goodwill towards other developing countries.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 9
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